Updating COVID-19 data for Navajo Counties
Summary: the per population rate of COVID-19 cases in Navajo counties is higher than in New York City, Seattle, and the surrounding non-Navajo counties when looking at the time after the first case was diagnosed.
Per request, we are providing updated data from the Navajo counties that we reported on previously here. We present updated data through 4/5/20 including: 1) cases for Navajo and surrounding non-Navajo counties over time, 2) cases over time on a log scale, and 3) cases per population:
As we saw previously, the numbers of cases are similar among Navajo counties (7 counties included) and the surrounding counties (17 counties included), but with notable differences in the rate per 1,000 population (this makes sense because of the difference in the number of counties included). The log scale does indicate growth that is increasing, but not quite logarithmic.
We also updated the numbers in terms of # of days from the first case, comparing Navajo counties to other areas, including the surrounding counties as we did above. A couple of notes here: 1) there is one VERY early case in Arizona in Jan 2020 that we did not included here because the rest of the local cases didn’t get going for 2 more months, and 2) with apologies, it appears that the Navajo curve in the similar graph in our prior post was shifted too far to the right, meaning things looked better than the situation is in reality. In this new analysis, and with additional days of data, the epidemic in Navajo counties appears to be more significant per population at the same point in their epidemic than in the other areas we looked at, including NYC, although the current rate of rise in cases in Navajo counties is less than NYC at the same point after the first case was diagnosed.
In summary, the per population rate of COVID-19 cases in Navajo counties is higher than in New York City, Seattle, and the surrounding non-Navajo counties when looking at the time after the first case was diagnosed.
